The Palestinian Center for Public Opinion published on Wednesday a press release about the study that Dr. Nabil Kukali carried out regarding the next President and Palestinian Legislative Council elections. The poll shows that Marwan el-Barghouthi is the favourite candidate for the next presidential election.
The most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali, conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (www.pcpo.org) during the period from May 5 till 15, 2014, covered a random sample of (1015) Palestinian respondents representing the various demographic specimens of adult Palestinians (18 years and above) living in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. It revealed that (80.6 %) of the Palestinians anticipate that there would be presidential elections within 6 months after the formation of the new government.
Dr. Nabil Kukali, President and founder of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion said that the overwhelming majority of the Palestinian public believes that Marwan el-Barghouthi, at present one of the most eminent Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, would be the most favorite runner for the next presidential elections. Dr. Kukali added:”It is time that Mr. el-Barghouthi should be released from prison to give him the opportunity to candidate for the next presidential elections”.
Responding to the question:” What is the likelihood that the elections would be held within 6 months after the formation of the new government?” (28.3 %) said “they will certainly be held”, (52.3 %) “They will likely be held”, (11.6 %) “They will likely not be held”, (3.2 %) said “they will never be held” and (4.6 %) said “I don’t know”.
Election of the PA-President:
1. Mahmoud Abbas and Ismael Haniyyeh
Regarding the question:”If there would be new elections for the post of the president of the Palestinian Authority with Mahmoud Abbas as Fatah candidate and Ismael Haniyyeh as Hamas candidate, for whom would you vote ?”, (44.3 %) said “for Mahmoud Abbas”, (17.6 %) “For Ismael Haniyyeh”, (30.7 %) said they wouldn’t vote and (7.4 %) said “I don’t know”.
2. Marwan el-Barghouthi and Ismael Haniyyeh
With respect to the question:”If the two, Marwan el-Barghouthi for Fatah and Ismael Haniyyeh for Hamas would compete for the post of the PA-president, for whom would you vote?” (49.7 %) said “for Marwan el-Barghouthi”, (16.0 %) “For Ismael Haniyyeh”, (25.6 %) said they wouldn’t participate in the elections and (8.7 %) said “I don’t know”.
3. Mahmoud Abbas and Marwan el-Barghouthi
And responding to the question:”If there would be next new elections for the post of the president of the Palestinian Authority and you have the two Fatah candidates, Mahmoud Abbas and Marwan el-Barghouthi competing for this post, for whom would you vote ?”, (26.9 %) said “for Mahmoud Abbas”, (33.2 %) “for Marwan el-Barghouthi”, (30.7 %) said they wouldn’t vote, and (9.2 %) said “I don’t know”.
4. Khaled Mash’al and Marwan el-Barghouthi
Now one more possibility:“If the two, Khaled Mash’al for Hamas and Marwan Barghouthi for Fatah would run the PA-presidential elections, for whom would you vote ?”, (51.0 %) said “for Marwan el-Barghouthi”, (16.2 %) for “Khaled Mash’al”, (25.1 %) wouldn’t participate in the elections and (7.7 %) said “I don’t know”.
Elections of the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC):
Responding to the question:” If the PLC-elections would be held now, which of the following party lists you anticipate to win:
– The Independents list
– Hamas’ list
– Fatah list or
– Other lists”,
(11.2 %) said “the Independent list”, (15.6 %) said “Hamas List”, (39.0 %) “Fatah list”, (11.4 %) “Other parties”, (17.6 %) said they wouldn’t participate in such elections and (5.2 %) said “I didn’t decide yet”.
Election of the most appropriate candidate:
And now regarding the question:”If the PLC-elections would be held as scheduled, would you vote for the most appropriate candidate or for the candidate of your favorite party or for the one favored by your family?”, (53.1 %) said “for the most appropriate candidate”, (24.4 %) said “for the candidate of my favorite party”, (11.6 %) said “for the candidate favored by my family”, (8.8 %) said “for none of them”, and (2.1 %) said “I don’t know”.
Methodology of the Survey Study
Mr. Elias Kukali, Head of the Quantitative Researches Department at the PCPO, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the respondents’ homes, i.e. face-to-face during different working hours, at least 5 hours a day, including the evening time, in order to ensure proper representation of those sub-groups of the population, which would otherwise be difficult to reach and selecting one individual in each household using Last Birthday Method. The choices were taken from a total of (162) election sites, from which (120) sites are located in West Bank and (42) sites in Gaza Strip according to the distribution of the Central Election Commission. These election sites were randomly chosen by using the method of the simple random sample. These in turn were the beginning of the random sample choice made from those regions in accordance with PCPO’s long experienced methodology.
Mr. Elias Kukali has further established that the margin of error was (±3.07%) at a significance and confidence levels of (5.0%) and (95%) respectively. He added that the rate of the female respondents in this survey was (49.7%) against (50.3%) male respondents. The distribution of the random sample between the Palestinian two major regions was (62.0%) in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and (38.0%) in Gaza Strip.
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